Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
